EXTRA INCENTIVES May $20K Sweepstakes | win up to a $1,000 betting voucher TOURNAMENT TIME $80 Pimlico Feeder | details $40 Santa Anita Feeder | details NOTABLE CARRYOVERS Pick 6 | $104,581 | Santa Anita | begins Race 3 | 4:26 pm ET | Siegel Picks1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY GULFSTREAM PARK WINNER Gulfstream Park | Race 3 | 2:08 pm ET | #7 Numeric (31%) KEY RACES Belterra Park | Race 7 | 3:15 pm ET | Tall Stack Stakes LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX Churchill Downs | Race 1 | 12:45 pm ET Aqueduct | Race 4 | 2:35 pm ET Pimlico | Race 7 | 3:22 pm ET TRAINERS TO WATCH Anthony Farrior | Pimlico, Charles Town, Penn National | all 7 entrants 9-2 or less morning line DID YOU SEE? Yesterday | Churchill Downs | jockey Luis Saez | 3 wins from 7 mounts PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAM Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know + Prime Plays Video – Santa Anita | Friday, May 10, 2024 Frank Carulli: Pimlico Late Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, May 10, 2024 Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Friday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Note: $104,581 carryover pick-6 begins in Race 3. Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. * The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. * * Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play. View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+ Main Ticket: 6-Tom and Jazzy; 2-Aurelian Man Backups/savers: none. Forecast: We’ll double the opener but not with a high degree of confidence. Any one of the six could win, so the best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Tom and Jazzy is solid on numbers, has two prior wins over the local lawn, and takes a significant class drop from a first level allowance event to a restricted (nw-3) $30,000 claimer. He’s never been one to trust but may have found his friends today. Aurelian Man should be prominent throughout – very possibly the controlling speed - and in his second start off a layoff appears primed for a major effort. He’s not particular fast on numbers but given his projected trip may be set for a career top. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B- Main Ticket: 1-Night Beacon; 4-Angel From Above; 5-Runnin On Promises. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: There appears to be three quick fillies in this five runner juvenile dash, and all three should be included in rolling exotic play. Night Beacon has been impressive in the morning for R. Hanson with three excellent recent drills that included in a sharp half mile team breeze April 28 (4f, :47hg) in which she was much the best in a team drill. If she breaks cleanly from the rail, the daughter of Spun to Run will take some catching. Angel From Above likewise has displayed talent leading up to her debut, is bred to win early (Maclean’s Music) and hails from a barn that generally does very well with babies. A :34 flat bullet breeze April kinda jumps off the page. Runnin On Promise, from the first crop of the high class sprinter Promises Fulfilled, looks to have some talent, though we have no video from her a.m. preparation to lean on. The barn has excellent stats with first timers, so we’ll toss here in. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: B Main Ticket: 5-Tembo; 3-Granada Flavor. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Tembo has recent consistent form and should fire another big shot in this $10,000 main track miler for older horses. Nosed out while nearly six lengths clear of the rest in his last start, the S. Knapp-trained gelding won’t need much more than that to return to the winner’s circle against this modest band, and while he hasn’t been out in more than two months (and was off nearly two months before that), the son of Carpe Diem projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip and then have no excuses. Big class dropper Granada Flavor is the one to fear most. All three of his career victories have been accomplished over the Santa Anita main track, and while his two races since being claimed last summer have been uninspiring, the S. McCarthy-trained gelding takes a realistic class drop with numbers that fit and seems very likely to return to good form in this soft spot. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B+ Main Ticket: 4-Pink Ace; 5-Blonde Bombshell. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Pink Ace launches a comeback for a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners and fits these starter allowance conditions perfectly, so we’re expecting the lightly raced four-year-old filly to fire a big shot off the bench. A recent sharp five furlong gate breeze (:59 3/5, second fastest of 43) catches the eye, and with one of the stable’s “go-to” riders taking the call we’re expecting the Phil D’Amato-trained daughter of Aikenite to be extremely live. This will be her first try on grass; hopefully she’ll like it though there’s little in her pedigree to suggest that she’ll move up on the sod. Blonde Bombshell wore down a $32,000 claiming field over the local lawn in mid-March and rates a reasonable look right back while being protected today in a sign of confidence. However, she does her best work from off the pace, and in a race that projects to have soft early splits she may not get the help up front that she’d prefer. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: C+ Main Ticket: Midnight Love; 1-Lettheliquourtalk. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Midnight Love lacks tactical speed but should have his chance to tag the speed close home once again, just as he did in a similar $32,000 seller here in his most recent start in mid-February. However, being away for 10 weeks and not being raised in class raises some red flags for the H. Palma-trained colt, so while we’ll certainly use him we’re not in love with the pattern. Lettheliquortalk has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and will be re-quipped with blinkers, so the J. Mullins-trained trained gelding could very well return to winning form in this weak affair. His runaway maiden claiming score three races back charts very well with this group, and with “win rider” H. Berrios staying aboard the son of Goldencents will try to bust out from the rail and take his field as far as he can. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 6: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B+ Main Ticket: 3-Yellow Sun Dress Backups/savers: 6-Perfect in Gray. Forecast: Yellow Sun Dress was a visually pleasing winner of a stronger-than-average maiden $50,000 dash here in her first outing in nearly a year (and in just her second career start) over this course and distance for high percentage trainer Mark Glatt and is protected today while seeking a repeat score. The daughter of Karakontie earned a very good number, shows an easy breeze to tick her over last week, retains K. Frey, and seems quite solid as a logical rolling exotic single. The barn has an excellent record with repeaters (22%) so we’re expecting a similar performance today and perhaps even better. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 7: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: B- Main Ticket: Sabres; 7-I’m Still in It. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Sabres drops to the bottom maiden claiming ($20,000) level and adds blinkers, so the D. O’Neill-trained filly could be too quick for this modest band based on speed figures and the race’s pace projection. No excuses. I’m Still in It has been sparingly raced but she does exit a fast, highly rated turf sprint and certainly will enjoy this softer assignment. However, all four of her prior starts have come on grass, so this switch to dirt leaves us in the dark. Have to respect the barn, though. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 8: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B Main ticket: 5-Grazen in the Sun; 6-Hotitude. Backups/savers: 7-Issa Court. Forecast: Grazen in the Sun just won a strong Hillside dash vs. California-bred foes last month and today returns to the claiming ranks (but remains above her claim level) while trying her luck over the flat course. She’s a strong fit on speed figures and a may have found a home on grass for her high percentage connections, who probably won’t still have her after the race. Hotitude is good enough to win if she’s healthy and she is a two-time winner over the local lawn, but the pattern is suspicious, to say the least. The K. Mulhall-trained eight-year-old mare has never raced this cheaply, and following a nine month layoff the veteran mare returns for a modest $20,000 tag after missing by a head in an $80,000 optional claimer in which she was protected last summer at Del Mar. The work tab looks average, but she did win following a year vacation over this turf course last year. There are simply too many mixed signals to have confidence, but Pick-6 players have to use her just in case.

The Triple Crown action continues on next week in Baltimore, but there are still plenty of quality wagering opportunities to be had this weekend. My favorite of them is the late pick 5 at Belmont At The Big A on Saturday. 1/ST BET and Xpressbet offer a Hit & Split promotion, meaning $10,000 in free money is up for grabs with a high-quality sequence to attack. Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play. Race 7: Grade: B- Main Ticket: 9 Nations Pride; 6 Greek Order Backups: 5 Tawny Port; 2 Kertez Forecast: The pace should be honest in this year’s Man o’War (G2) and there is little question the 1 3/8 miles event goes through Godolphin and Charles Appleby. The team sends out an extremely strong uncoupled entry led by 8-5-morning line favorite #9 Nations Pride. The son of Teofilo makes his 5YO debut after rattling off 3 of 5 in 2023, including a victory in the Canadian International (G1) last October. If he gets back to his best efforts as a 4YO, they are running for 2nd place. However, I am not willing to push all-in since he has not raced since last November and this certainly is just a starting point for the $2.5 million earner. His stablemate #8 Silver Knott holds the recency edge earning a graded stakes win already in 2024, but it came with a perfect trip off a slow pace versus a lesser group last month at Keeneland. I am willing to let the Lope De Vega gelding beat me, but not #6 Greek Order. The Juddmonte homebred has just two career wins, but his Stateside debut last month in Lexington is a toss when failing to hit the board as the public choice. The Kingman colt took a ton of money against allowance foes, broke slow, and had no shot given a race shape that greatly benefitted those towards the front end. At his 12-1-morning line offering he makes for an interesting gamble. #2 Kertez, #4 Harry Hood, and #5 Tawny Port all exit the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream Park where Tawny Port was hammered down to 3-5-favoritism, but struggled to find clear sailing until it was too late. He makes sense with a cleaner voyage, as does Kertez in his second North American try. Race 8: Grade: B+ Main Ticket: 4 Mulkey Backups: None Forecast: I am all in on #4 Mulkey in this state-bred MSW event at six panels. The $450K son of Gun Runner got hammered on debut and was pressed all the way around the track before giving it up late to perfect trip winner, Lake Abankee. The Flurry Racing Stables filly is likely to take a big step forward and make her first trip to the winner’s circle for trainer Brad Cox. Race 9: Grade: B Main Ticket: 6 Ocean Atlantique Backups: 2 Conman Forecast: There does not appear to be a lot of early speed signed on in this two-turn allowance event over the sod, so coming from well out of it may be a difficult proposition. The coupled entry of #1 Belouni and #1A Danzingwiththestars will likely try to do just that. They are listed at 8-5 on oddsmaker David Aragona’s morning line, but might be vulnerable given the probable race shape. If you have contrarian opinions in other legs, I understand using them as a backup, but I will try to get the jump on them with runners expected to take less dough. #6 Ocean Atlantique should make the lead with Luis Saez aboard for a barn that is heating up over the past couple of weeks. In fact, trainer Mike Maker has won 11 of 36 dating back to the start of May. The American Pharoah gelding did not have a good winter, but did move forward in his allowance try at Keeneland last month and could have a pace advantage under one of the best front-end riders in the world. #2 Conman should also get a favorable trip just off the pace. The D J Stable LLC gelding could be keen off the bench, but should be in the perfect spot should Ocean Atlantique falter in the lane. Race 10: Grade: B Main Ticket: 8 Patty Cakes, 9 Bon Adieu Backups: 7 Midtown Lights Forecast: #2 Pitch Clock is likely to take a lot of public support in her second try off the bench for Chad Brown. The Commissioner filly broke her maiden at Belmont to close out her 2023 campaign, but was underwhelming in her 4YO debut after making an easy lead in mid-April. She is obviously capable of moving forward after shaking off the rust last month, but Brown runners are usually fit off layoffs and she is likely to get over bet. #9 Bon Adieu should have no issue making the lead from her far outside draw. She has hit the board in 7 of 9 at AQU and could get brave on the front end. #8 Patty Cakes makes her second start off the claim for Horacio De Paz. Look for Kendrick Carmouche to set up shop just off of Bon Adieu with a mare that has won 6 career races and hit board in her only try over Aqueduct main track. #7 Midtown Lights moves into the open company ranks after adding the blinkers and besting a field of eight in mid-March. All 3 of her career wins have come at the “Big A”. Race 11: Grade: C+ Main Ticket: 9 Bossy Jeans; 3 Rozay Summer Backups: 11 Rainingatthebeach Forecast: The Late Pick 5 concludes with a state-bred maiden claimer at two turns over the lawn. #3 Rozay Summer gets some serious class relief after debuting against open company special weight foes in Tampa in mid-March. The 9-5-morning line choice attracts Joel Rosario and raced against the flow in that first try, but sports a spotty work tab and drops in for a tag quickly for Christophe Clement. Some concerns, but also plenty to like. Her uncoupled entry mate #5 Once an Eagle is more difficult to get excited about. The Tonalist filly lost as the favorite in all three starts as a juvenile and makes her first start since last September. She is a fade, but #9 Bossy Jeans is not. As mentioned, the Maker barn is starting to roll and the daughter of Laoban gets a rider upgrade to Luis Saez. My top pick to close the day in the “Big Apple”.

Yonkers Raceway has a 10-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 7, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track. Race 7 (9:00 PM EST) 1-Karma Seelster (9/5)-Couldn't connect in the Borgata Series but did best this kind on 3-8. Doesn't have big gate speed but Jordan Stratton should get a cozy trip and be in the hunt at the wire. 5-Golden Quest N (2-1)-Winner of 3 straight is a threat landing on the point or coming off cover. Best to respect the winning streak staying intact and could provide more value than the morning line chalk. Race 8 (9:20 PM EST) 3-Silk Cloud A (7/2)-Picked up a win as the chalk caved on the lead, but don't discount the effort. Stratton provided a perfect steer, did close in 55.1 and could double up at a fair price. 5-Lit De Rose (2-1)-This time Pat Lachance is going to have the pedal down and take control when the wings fold. At least that is what makes sense to me. If so, that puts the mare in a position to win for the 3rd time in the last 4 starts. Race 9 (9:40 PM EST) 1-True Blue Hanover (2-1)-This 4-year-old wired the last group and made it look easy. Takes on a couple of older foes who could be a challenge, so this won't be a cake walk. Does well racing on the point and should find her way on the lead when the wings fold. 4-Uptown Hanover (5/2)-The Tyler Buter-Jeff Cullipher combo has clicked for 25% winners and this veteran mare could be forwardly placed early on. Should be a main player with a sharp steer. Race 10 (10:00 PM EST) 2-Diamante Trio It (3-1)-Bumps up after landing in the pocket leaving from post 7. There are no standouts in this group and will take a swing with George Brennan leaving from the inside. 5-Swiss House Onfire (12-1)-This is a dropper in a field where half the group is moving up in class. Lands back at the level of its last picture on 3-1. Will look for an aggressive try from Jimmy Pants. He should be out and rolling from the word "go". $1.00 Late Pick 4 1,5/3,5/1,4/2,5 Total Bet=$16 Check me out on Twitter!

EXTRA INCENTIVES May $20K Sweepstakes | win up to a $1,000 betting voucher SCHEDULE NOTE Pimlico | opening day | first post 12:25 pm ET TOURNAMENT TIME $80 Pimlico Feeder | details NOTABLE CARRYOVERS Jackpot Pick 5 | $81,919 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ET 1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY PIMLICO WINNER Pimlico | Race 5 | 2:27 pm ET | #6 Grand Opening (28%) KEY RACES Thistledown | Race 8 | 4:20 pm ET | Petro Memorial Stakes LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX Horseshoe Indianapolis | Race 5 | 4:14 pm ET Aqueduct | Race 8 | 4:43 pm ET Churchill Downs | Race 3 | 5:58 pm ET TRAINERS TO WATCH Shug McGaughey | Aqueduct, Pimlico, Churchill | all 4 entrants 7-2 or less morning line DID YOU SEE? Yesterday | Evangeline Downs | favorites went 0-8 on the card PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAM Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Thursday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Fillies and mares will be in the spotlight on the second day of Pimlico’s Preakness Meet this Friday, May 10. The 50-cent Late Pick 4 encompasses a 6F starter allowance, 5F maiden claimer on the turf and a pair of 1-1/16-mile dirt routes. Here’s a closer look: PIM 6th race (3:10 p.m. EST) -- BRZINA, content to track the 11-1 loose leader at 7F, found two gears in the final quarter mile to remain sharp and win in her second start off the Ness claim. Like her more on the cutback to a short sprint as today’s solo play. [If BRZINA is scratched, use STOP THE CAP (#8), who beat two next-out winners in a repeat victory at one mile on a sloppy track. She was fractious in the gate and no factor last out, but can score again at a big price with ample pace flow in front of her.] PIM 7th race (3:43 p.m. EST) -- DESTINATION looks best on paper but, like most of her rivals, is unproven on turf. QUALITY WEEKEND earned the top grass speed figure in the field when she debuted late in her 4-year-old season. PRINCESS LUCIA, the lone first-time starter, is out of the dam Debbie’s Diamond, whose siblings are 13-67 on the lawn. Go seven deep in Leg B. [Add INTEL AGENT (#15) to the ticket if she draws into the race.] PIM 8th race (4:16 p.m. EST) -- Three lengths separated the 2-3-4 finishers coming out of the same race and COVER THE SPREAD, the 5-2 second favorite off a nine-month layoff that day, wasn’t among them. Throw in the new shooters who can win today’s featured allowance and it translates to an ‘ALL’ punch in the Pick 4. PIM 9th race (4:49 p.m. EST) -- OH MRS. MAISEL’S seasonal debut at one mile was better than it appears. She was pressed on the lead after a half mile and tired in a higher-tagged claiming race. The pace-pressing winner, Graceful Rose (16/2-3-4, $122k), came back to finish second at Aqueduct in a $50,000 starter allowance. Charles Town invader OREO ANGEL is a longshot to consider if the addition of blinkers helps her poor starting habits in her first start for a claiming tag. Suggested 50-Cent Ticket PIM 6th Race: 1 PIM 7th Race: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, (AE-15) PIM 8th Race: ALL PIM 9th Race: 4, 7 Cost for 50-cent ticket: $49

No inquiry in this year’s 150th running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby? Are you kidding? Mystik Dan, who received nothing less than a superb rail-skimming ride by Brian Hernandez Jr. (a la Calvin Borel), prevailed by a scant nose at odds of 18-1 in one of the most dramatic finishes in Kentucky Derby history. Sierra Leone finished second, a nose in front of Forever Young after those two colts were involved in a slugfest while coming down the stretch. For the stewards to not put up the inquiry sign concerning the actions of Sierra Leone and Forever Young was, in my opinion, ridiculous and an embarrassment. Through the years, I have been in many a stewards’ stand, be it at a track in California, Washington or Idaho. I believe that a very important aspect of a steward’s job is to decide whether or not the inquiry sign should be posted after a race has been run. Look, it’s true that stewards look at EVERY race very closely, both live and immediately afterward via videotape replay. In the vast majority of cases, the scrutiny does not trigger an inquiry. If the 2024 Kentucky Derby had been contested in California, I believe there is about a 99% chance there would have been an inquiry. I can attest that it is a priority in California that whenever the stewards are taking more than just a routine look at a race, they inform the public by posting the inquiry sign. In the case of this year’s Kentucky Derby, either the three stewards did not take more than a routine look at the race, or they did do so and they did not let the public know they were doing so. Either way, in my opinion, the stewards dropped the ball. Barbara Borden, Butch Becraft and Tyler Picklesimer were the three stewards for this year’s Kentucky Derby. These are the same three stewards who were in the stand for the controversial 2019 Kentucky Derby. After Maximum Security finished first by 1 3/4 lengths, the stewards disqualified him and placed him 17th for committing a foul when he veered out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy. I think the Maximum Security disqualification was the correct call. But the stewards did not post the inquiry sign on that occasion, either. “In 2019, the stewards’ post-Derby adjudication process lasted 22 minutes and played out on national TV as they debated whether Maximum Security’s shifting out while leading on the far turn caused crowding that affected rivals in close pursuit and almost triggered a clipping-of-heels incident,” T.D. Thornton of the Thoroughbred Daily News wrote this week. “Two jockey objections were lodged in the 2019 Derby, but only one of them was initially announced to the public. The stewards five years ago were criticized for not posting any inquiry into the incident, but at that time the KHRC [Kentucky Horse Racing Commission] essentially gave the same answer that the agency did on Monday -- that just because the ‘inquiry’ sign isn’t lit, it doesn’t mean the stewards aren’t examining the situation.” For me, the stewards not posting the inquiry sign in the 2019 and 2024 Kentucky Derbies brings to mind the 1980 Preakness Stakes. The 1980 Preakness was, without question, one of the most controversial races in this country’s history. It’s famous (or infamous) for an incident between Codex and the filly Genuine Risk turning into the stretch. Just before they straightened away in the stretch, Codex and jockey Angel Cordero Jr. had a narrow lead while racing to the inside of Genuine Risk. Jacinto Vasquez rode Genuine Risk. Two weeks earlier Vasquez and Genuine Risk had won the Kentucky Derby. Genuine Risk became only the second filly to ever win the Run for the Roses and first filly to do so since the Regret in 1915. (How great was Regret? She not only beat the boys in the May 8 Kentucky Derby, she did so while making her first start since Aug. 22!) In Richard Sowers’ book “The Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes,” he wrote the following of the 1980 Preakness incident turning for home when Codex already was racing wide: “When Angel Cordero glanced over and saw Genuine Risk coming, he guided Codex even wider toward the center of the track. Vasquez had no choice but to take Genuine Risk even wider, momentarily checking his mount, then pointing her almost at the grandstand. Depending on the source, Codex never actually touched Genuine Risk, violently slammed into her, or lightly brushed her -- the most likely scenario. Regardless, the filly lost all momentum. “Codex reached the furlong pole a length ahead of Genuine Risk with the rest of the field nowhere in sight, then coasted home 4 3/4 lengths in front.” Despite there being such an obvious incident involving Codex and Genuine Risk, the stewards did not post the inquiry sign. Vasquez did lodge a foul claim against Codex and Cordero. “The stewards disallowed the foul claim, and Genuine Risk’s owner, Diana Johnson Firestone, filed a formal complaint with the Maryland Racing Commission, which like the stewards, upheld Codex’s triumph,” Sowers wrote. You can agree or disagree with the decision by the stewards to not disqualify Codex. But I believe it was poor judgment on the part of the stewards to not post the inquiry sign. Similarly, you can debate whether or not Sierra Leone should have been disqualified from second and placed third for causing interference to Forever Young. But I believe it was poor judgment on the part of the stewards to not post the inquiry sign. “There was obvious bumping in the stretch run between runner-up Sierra Leone and third-place finisher Forever Young, and the actions of Tyler Gaffalione aboard Sierra Leone as the wire approached -- appearing to straight-arm Forever Young like a running back -- should have, on their own, warranted an inquiry,” wrote Ray Paulick in the Paulick Report. “But the stewards, like referees in the final seconds of a championship basketball game, swallowed the whistle. “Their official explanation, taking two full days to manufacture after dodging questions from reporters since Saturday night, was issued Monday by a state government flak.” Paulick quoted the following official statement from the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission as to why the inquiry sign had not been posted in this year’s Kentucky Derby: “The stewards review every race in Kentucky live and by video replay before posting it official and they followed the same procedure for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. After conducting their standard review of the race, determining no further review or investigation was necessary to conclude there were no incidents that altered the finish of the race, and seeing there were no objections filed, the stewards posted the Kentucky Derby official. “Following the race, the stewards ordered Tyler Gaffalione, jockey aboard Sierra Leone, to film review on May 9, 2024. The stewards conduct film review routinely to review the conduct of jockeys during a race. The stewards, in their discretion, can take disciplinary action against a jockey following the review. If the stewards issue a penalty, it will be posted on the Kentucky Derby Racing Commission website.” The statement issued by the KHRC did not sit well with Paulick. “The statement is laughable,” Paulick wrote. “There was $26,947,251 wagered in exactas on the Kentucky Derby and the margin between second and third place was a matter of inches. Sierra Leone was out in the middle of the track at the top of the stretch and came in several paths while racing just to the outside of Forever Young for the final three-sixteenths of a mile. Bumps were exchanged. I didn’t have a dog in the fight (my bet was on a horse that finished off the board) but a lot of people did, and the stewards did everyone a disservice by not lighting the inquiry sign and taking a serious look at the stretch run from every angle -- and allow the public to see what they were reviewing. “I’m not a steward and I’m not going to say whether or not there should have been a disqualification,” Paulick continued. “But there is no question in my mind that there should have been a stewards’ inquiry -- and explanation to the public. Quite simply, they blew it.” I agree. CLOSE FINISH MAKES HISTORY Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin noted this week that this actually was the closest three-horse finish in Kentucky Derby history. “The only finishes close to it were the two heads separating the first three finishers [Jet Pilot, Phalanx and Faultless] in 1947 and the nose and half-length that separated the first three finishers [Alan-a-Dale, Inventor and The Rival] in 1902, but that last one was in a four-horse field when the Kentucky Derby was pretty much just another of the major races of the day,” Haskin wrote. “…Sure Mystik Dan’s victory will stand the test of time, especially with all the elements surrounding it. But for now we still have the images of the drama that unfolded down the stretch with Forever Young trying to escape the clutches of Sierra Leone, who was intent on playing bumper cars with the Japanese invader every step of the way. It was an unfortunate conclusion to Forever Young’s remarkable 14,000-mile journey that covered four countries, three continents and three Derbies, ending with what looked more like a sumo wrestling match with Sierra Leone, who bumped, shoved and basically mauled Forever Young, who already had his share of misfortune in the race with a bad start, suffering a laceration, and having to go five-wide into the far turn. He tried to give back as much as he got, but he was pretty much overwhelmed by the bigger and stronger Sierra Leone, who has had a habit of lugging in through most of his career. “…Even as they bore down on Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone kept coming in on Forever Young and delivering a series of battle blows. Nearing the wire Tyler Gafflione, perhaps bracing himself for another collusion that could cost him the race, felt compelled to reach out with his left arm, pushing against Forever Young trying to create some separation between the two, while pulling hard on the right rein. In the end it all resulted in the most exciting and exhilarating Derby finish in memory.” I think it was unfortunate for Forever Young that he came into the stretch racing to the inside instead of the outside of Sierra Leone. If Forever Young had been outside that rival, then the Real Steel colt would not have had to deal with a lugging in Sierra Leone all the way down the lane. Haskin expressed the view that Sierra Leone should not be vilified. “Let’s not portray Sierra Leone as some sort of villain,” Haskin wrote. “With his huge, but awkward stride and habit of paddling his left leg, he, for whatever reason, can’t help lugging in, but in the past he has only done it when there is open space to his left. This big bulldozer of a horse, who cost $2.3 million at the Saratoga yearling sale, has been able to steamroll his opponents. In his five starts, he has passed, or should I say blown by, 51 of his opponents, roaring by them out in the middle of the track. But there was one he failed to pass by about two inches Saturday, the biggest day of them all.” MEMORIES OF GATE DANCER Back in the 1980s, there was a colt who, like Sierra Leone, lugged in all the time. His name was Gate Dancer. His trainer, Jack Van Berg, was inducted into the national Hall of Fame in 1985. One morning at Santa Anita early in 1984 when Gate Dancer was a 3-year-old, I talked with Van Berg’s son and assistant trainer, Tim, about the son of Sovereign Dancer and the Bull Lea mare Sun Gate. “Is there anything you can do to try and stop Gate Dancer from lugging in?” I asked. “Yes, we can,” Tim replied. “Come on over to the barn and I’ll show you what we’re going to do.” Tim walked into the barn’s stable office. After a moment, he came out holding earmuffs. “He’s going to wear these for his next race,” Tim said. “They use these all the time in Japan.” But it turned out that even when racing with earmuffs, Gate Dancer continued to have a problem with lugging in. He lugged in so badly during the stretch run of the 1984 Kentucky Derby that he absolutely pummeled poor Fali Time. Gate Dancer finished fourth, with Fali Time fifth. Gate Dancer was disqualified and placed fifth for “bumping Fali Time several times,” as it says in the official chart comments. Gate Dancer in 1984 became the first horse ever disqualified in the history of the Kentucky Derby for his actions during the running of the race. In 2019, Maximum Security became the first horse in the history of the Kentucky Derby to finish first and then be disqualified for his actions during the running of the race. After Gate Dancer had his number taken down in the Kentucky Derby, he did win the Preakness Stakes two weeks later. Later in 1984, in what would be one of the most controversial races in the history of the sport in this country, Gate Dancer was disqualified from second and placed third for lugging in and causing interference during the stretch run of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which was won by 31-1 longshot Wild Again. In a furious three-horse battle in the final furlong of the Classic, Wild Again was on the inside, Slew o’ Gold was in between, while Gate Dancer was on the outside. A lot of people thought the interference suffered by Slew o’ Gold was caused by Wild Again. They were outraged that Gate Dancer, not Wild Again, was disqualified. The three stewards for the 1984 Classic at Hollywood Park were Pete Pedersen, Hubert Jones and Alfred Shelhamer. One morning a couple of days after the Classic, Shelhamer took the time to show me on a video replay of the race why Gate Dancer had been disqualified. As we watched the slo-mo head-on, Shelhamer pointed out to me that Wild Again had not drifted out. The reason it looked like he was drifting out was because he had been bumped in the hindquarters. Shelhamer showed me that when Gate Dancer was lugging in, he pushed Slew o’ Gold into the hindquarters of Wild Again. And when the hind end of Wild Again was bumped, it pushed the front part of his body outward. But when many people looked at the head-on and saw the front part of Wild Again angled toward the grandstand, they concluded that he was drifting out and causing interference to Slew o’ Gold. I have heard Jerry Bailey, an NBC broadcaster after a Hall of Fame career as a jockey, and others say that they believe that before Sierra Leone was lugging into Forever Young, it was Forever Young who came out first to make contact with Sierra Leone. And if Forever Young was indeed the instigator, it weakens the case to disqualify Sierra Leone for bumping and impeding Forever Young a number of times after that. But when I watch the head-on of the stretch run of the Kentucky Derby, I do not agree that Forever Young was the instigator. I think what took place in upper stretch between Forever Young and Sierra Leone was much like what happened during the stretch run in the 1984 Breeders’ Cup Classic. It appears to me that the first contact between Forever Young and Sierra Leone in upper stretch takes place when Sierra Leone lugs in and slams the hind end of Forever Young, thus pushing the front part of Forever Young’s body outward. When many people watching the head-on see the front of Forever Young’s head turned outward toward the grandstand, they come to the conclusion -- erroneously, I believe -- that the initial contact between Forever Young and Sierra Leone was caused by Forever Young. From what I saw, it’s my opinion that Sierra Leone should have been disqualified from second and placed third for continuously lugging in through the stretch run and causing interference to Forever Young, who lost by a nose and a nose. TRAINER ALSO MAKES HISTORY Kenny McPeek became just the third trainer in the 150-year history of the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby to win both races in the same year. The other two trainers to accomplish this feat were H.J. “Derby Dick” Thompson in 1933 and Ben “Plain Ben” Jones in both 1949 and 1952. Thompson in 1933 won the Oaks with Barn Swallow and the Derby with the maiden Brokers Tip. That was the year of the “fighting finish Derby” in which Don Meade aboard Brokers Tip and Herb Fischer on Head Play basically were wrestling with each other while their horses were battling down the stretch. In 1949, Jones won the Oaks with Wistful and the Derby with Ponder. In 1952, Jones won the Oaks with Real Delight and the Derby with Hill Gail. This year marked only the third time in history that the same jockey and trainer won both the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby in the same year. In addition to 38-year-old Hernandez and 61-year-old McPeek collaborating to win this year’s Oaks with Thorpedo Anna and Derby with Mystik Dan, Meade and Thompson teamed up to win both races in 1933. When Jones won both races as a trainer in 1952, the legendary Eddie Arcaro rode both winners. MORE ON HERNANDEZ’S MARVELOUS RIDE Back when Jay Privman, who is now retired, was writing a detailed analysis of the stakes races awarding Kentucky Derby points, time and again he had praise for the riding abilities of Brian Hernandez Jr. Hernandez seemed to be underrated despite having won the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Classic aboard 9-1 Fort Larned. Hernandez made a point to do some homework prior to this year’s Kentucky Derby by studying Calvin Borel, a fellow rider from Louisiana known for his rail-skimming rides. Remarkably, Borel won three Kentucky Derbies in four years on Street Sense (2007), Mine That Bird (2009) and Super Saver (2010). “When we drew the three post I watched Calvin’s rides on Super Saver and Mine That Bird in the Derby, both on the rail, and said I’m just going to roll the dice” to try and do the same thing on Mystik Dan, Hernandez said. Doing a spot-on Borel impersonation, Hernandez gave a ride last Saturday that was a masterpiece. After the start, Hernandez got Mystik Dan over to the inside rail almost as quickly as you can say the jockey’s name. Hernandez then stayed next to the inside rail the entire way around the oval. It was also very Borel-like for Hernandez to boldly squeeze through an extremely tight opening between a backpedaling Track Phantom and the inner rail turning for home. It certainly was to Mystik Dan’s credit that he unhesitatingly charged through the small hole. How tight was it? Hernandez’s left boot actually scraped the rail. Mystik Dan shook clear in upper stretch and bounded past the eighth pole two lengths in front. By being either first or second a furlong from home he put himself in what I call “the prime position” to win the Kentucky Derby. That’s because including Mystik Dan, 58 of the last 62 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second a furlong from the finish. The four exceptions during this period were Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005, Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Rich Strike in 2022. One of the reasons that I made Forever Young my top pick in this year’s Kentucky Derby is I thought he might be able to be first or second with a furlong to go. He was second at the eighth pole, a head of Sierra Leone in third. LONGER TRIP FOR SIERRA LEONE & FOREVER YOUNG It turned out that Mystik Dan and Hernandez needed to save every single inch of ground they possibly could considering their margin of victory in the 1 1/4-mile classic was only a nose. Indeed, according to the Equibase GPS chart, Mystik Dan traveled 6,608 feet, compared to 6,631 feet by Sierra Leone and 6,647 feet by Forever Young. In other words, Forever Young lost by two noses (which equals a head) after traveling 39 feet, or approximately four lengths, farther than Mystik Dan. Sierra Leone lost by just a nose after traveling 23 feet, or about 2 1/2 lengths, farther than Mystik Dan. SO CLOSE TO PERFECT RECORDS As expected, Fierceness, the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2023, was sent away as the favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby. He finished 15th at odds of 3-1. Sierra Leone was the 9-2 second choice in the wagering, with Forever Young next at 7-1. Catching Freedom, off at 8-1, finished fourth. Everyone else in the race was sent off at 11-1 or higher. Sierra Leone is only two noses away from being undefeated in five career starts. In addition to the Kentucky Derby, he lost the Remsen Stakes by a nose on a muddy track at Aqueduct last Dec. 2. The Remsen winner, Dornoch, ended up 10th at 22-1 in the Kentucky Derby. Forever Young is just two noses away from being undefeated in six career starts. Another reason I picked Forever Young to win the Kentucky Derby is my feeling that he has a great trainer in Yoshito Yahagi. “I expect Yahagi to have Forever Young as ready as humanly possible to run a biggie on the first Saturday in May,” I wrote for Xpressbet.com. “Yahagi being in Forever Young’s corner is a major reason I think this colt represents Japan’s best chance yet to win the Kentucky Derby. “I became a believer in Yahagi when he won not one, but two Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar in 2021. He shocked the racing world by winning the BC Distaff with 49-1 longshot Marche Lorraine. Yahagi also won the BC Filly & Mare Turf with 4-1 Loves Only You.” Well, it turned out that Yahagi came within inches of adding a Kentucky Derby victory to his ever-growing list of achievements. FICKLE FIERCENESS The drastic in-and-out form of Fierceness continued. He followed his victory in the Florida Derby by a record-breaking 13 1/2 lengths with a defeat in the Kentucky Derby by 24 1/2 lengths. Consider the Beyer Speed Figures for Fierceness, beginning with his 13 3/4-length debut win on a muddy track last year at Saratoga: 95, 59, 105, 84, 110, 67. It’s one of the wackiest sequences of Beyers that I have ever seen. Fierceness produced his 105 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in dominant fashion by 6 1/4 lengths last November. He recorded his 110 Beyer in the Florida Derby. Though Fierceness hopped at the start, Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez deftly put the favorite in an ideal spot early when attending the pace while outside rivals. And it’s not as if it was a sizzling early pace. The fractions were :22.97 for the opening quarter-mile, :46.63 for the half, 1:11.31 for six furlongs. By comparison, the early splits last year were :22.35, :45.73 and 1:10.11. But for the third time in his six lifetime starts, Fierceness let his many backers down, just as he had when finishing seventh as a 1-2 favorite in the Champagne Stakes and third as a 1-5 favorite in the Holy Bull Stakes. Prior to the Kentucky Derby, I did see some possible signs that the “good” Fierceness might not show up. For one thing, coming off a 110 Beyer Speed Figure in the Florida Derby, Fierceness had every right to regress off a huge effort. Also, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners continue to have a dismal overall record vis-a-vis the Kentucky Derby. Street Sense and Nyquist remain the only two to win both races since the Breeders’ Cup was launched all the way back in 1984. And then there was the matter of Fierceness having to pack the extra weight of being Andy Beyer’s pick to win. For Xpressbet.com last week, I wrote: “A major concern for Fierceness in the Kentucky Derby is Andy Beyer said this week on Steve Byk’s SiriuxXM radio program At the Races that ‘my exacta is Fierceness over Just a Touch.’ “That is worrisome for Fierceness,” I noted. “Beyer himself readily admits that the record of his top pick in the three Triple Crown races is awful.” Why was I hoping that Beyer didn’t pick Forever Young, the horse I liked, in this year’s Kentucky Derby? Consider Beyer’s woeful exhibition of public handicapping during the 2015 Triple Crown. Beyer’s top choice in all three races was badly outrun. Beyer picked Upstart to win the 2015 Kentucky Derby. Upstart was eased and finished 60 1/2 lengths behind American Pharoah. Firing Line then was Beyer’s top pick in the Preakness Stakes. Firing Line stumbled at the start, was eased and finished 45 lengths behind American Pharoah. Beyer’s top pick in the Belmont Stakes was Materiality, who finished last and lost by 22 1/4 lengths to American Pharoah. While American Pharoah was running his way into the history books by winning the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont to become the first horse to sweep the Triple Crown in 37 years, Beyer’s top pick in those three races lost by a combined 127 3/4 lengths. As for Beyer’s exacta in this year’s Kentucky Derby, those two horses lost by a combined 74 lengths. As mentioned earlier, Fierceness finished 15th and lost by 24 1/2 lengths. Just a Touch wound up last in the field of 20 and lost by 54 lengths. WINNER GETS TRIPLE-DIGIT BEYER (BARELY) Mystik Dan was credited with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his Kentucky Derby performance. Going back to 1989, the first year in which Beyer Speed Figures were listed in the American Racing Manual, the lowest figure for a Kentucky Derby winner was California Chrome’s 97 in 2014. Below are Beyer Speed Figures for Kentucky Derby winners going back to 1989: 2023 Mage (105) 2022 Rich Strike (101) 2021 Mandaloun (101)* 2020 Authentic (105) 2019 Country House (99)** 2018 Justify (103) 2017 Always Dreaming (102) 2016 Nyquist (103) 2015 American Pharoah (105) 2014 California Chrome (97) 2013 Orb (104) 2012 I’ll Have Another (101) 2011 Animal Kingdom (103) 2010 Super Saver (104) 2009 Mine That Bird (105) 2008 Big Brown (109) 2007 Street Sense (110) 2006 Barbaro (111) 2005 Giacomo (100) 2004 Smarty Jones (107) 2003 Funny Cide (109) 2002 War Emblem (114) 2001 Monarchos (116) 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (108) 1999 Charismatic (108) 1998 Real Quiet (107) 1997 Silver Charm (115) 1996 Grindstone (112) 1995 Thunder Gulch (108) 1994 Go for Gin (112) 1993 Sea Hero (105) 1992 Lil E. Tee (107) 1991 Strike the Gold (not listed) 1990 Unbridled (not listed) 1989 Sunday Silence (102) *Medina Spirit (102 Beyer) finished first but was disqualified and forfeited all purse money due to a medication violation, with Mandaloun being declared the winner **Country House finished second but was placed first after Maximum Security (101 Beyer) was disqualified from first and placed 17th for causing interference GOLDENCENTS SIRES A KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER Mystik Dan is a Kentucky-bred son of Goldencents and the Colonel John mare Ma’am. Though Goldencents is best known for winning two editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile, he did have enough stamina to win the Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles. Goldencents is by super sire Into Mischief. Into Mischief has sired not one, but two Kentucky Derby winners in Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021 through the disqualification of Medina Spirit). Into Mischief also is the sire of Laurel River, who won this year’s Dubai World Cup by 8 1/2 lengths in a sensational performance. McPeek trained Harlan’s Holiday, who finished seventh as the 6-1 favorite when War Emblem won the 2022 Kentucky Derby. Harlan’s Holiday, a grandson of 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed, later would sire Into Mischief. MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM Another reason Forever Young was my pick to win the Kentucky Derby is he has zero strikes in my Derby Strikes System. Forever Young didn’t win, though he did come very close. The victorious Mystik Dan also had zero strikes. I developed my Derby Strikes System in 1999 to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives. My Derby Strikes System consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike. The eight categories are listed further below in this blog. A number of the categories in my Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to the pandemic, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was run on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021, the Derby Strikes System again was viable. Mage last year joined Mine That Bird as the only two Kentucky Derby winners to have more than two strikes. Mine That Bird had four strikes. Mage had three. History tells us that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more. According to the Derby Strikes System, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 80% of the Kentucky Derby winners (41 out of 51) have had zero strikes or one strike from 1973 through 2023. There have been eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes: Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022). WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973 Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go back further than that year when determining the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. This is because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races. The strikes for each official Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below: 2024 Mystik Dan (0 strikes) 2023 Mage (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 7) 2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3) 2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4* 2020 race run in September 2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3** 2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7 2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1 2016 Nyquist (0 strikes) 2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes) 2014 California Chrome (0 strikes) 2013 Orb (0 strikes) 2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes) 2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes) 2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4 2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9 2008 Big Brown (0 strikes) 2007 Street Sense (0 strikes) 2006 Barbaro (0 strikes) 2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5 2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes) 2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8 2002 War Emblem (0 strikes) 2001 Monarchos (0 strikes) 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6 1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5 1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes) 1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4 1996 Grindstone (0 strikes) 1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes) 1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes) 1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5 1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes) 1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes) 1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3 1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes) 1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes) 1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2 1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4 1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes) 1984 Swale (0 strikes) 1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1 1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3 1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1 1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes) 1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes) 1978 Affirmed (0 strikes) 1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes) 1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes) 1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes) 1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4 1973 Secretariat (0 strikes) *Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money **Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below: 1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.) 2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005, Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.) 3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 58 of the last 62 Kentucky Derby winners through 2024 have been first or second with a furlong to run. From 1962 through 2024, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.) 4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010, Mandaloun in 2021 and Mage in 2023, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.) 5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.) 6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.) 7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 3 for 73 in the Kentucky Derby through 2023. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.) 8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.) MUTH FAVORED IN PREAKNESS FUTURE WAGER POOL 2 Arkansas Derby winner Muth closed as the 7-2 favorite in Pool 2 of the Preakness future wager. Pool 2 opened on April 26 and closed last Saturday (May 4) prior to the Kentucky Derby. Mystik Dan closed at odds of 45-1 and then went out and won the Kentucky Derby at 18-1. If he starts in the Preakness, he is expected to be no worse than the second favorite to Muth in what would be a rematch. Muth won the Arkansas Derby by two lengths on March 30. Mystik Dan finished third, 6 1/4 lengths behind Muth. Hall of Famer Bob Baffert trains Muth, a Kentucky-bred Good Magic colt. Baffert sent out Medina Spirit to finish first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. However, the colt was disqualified after he tested positive for the presence of betamethasone, a medication that was legal to use, but not on race day. Following Medina Spirit’s DQ, Churchill Downs Inc. banned Baffert from participating at any of its tracks in 2022 and 2023. The suspension then was extended (unfairly, in my opinion) through 2024. Muth is eligible to compete in the Preakness and Belmont. I wrote for Xpressbet.com that “one horse I will be betting in Pool 2 of the Preakness future wager if he stays anywhere near his 30-1 price on the morning line is Tuscan Gold. It’s my view that, generally speaking, 30-1 is the sort of price that one should be looking at in a future wager rather than Muth’s 3-1.” Tuscan Gold closed at 17-1, which was way off the mark from the 30-1 odds on the Pool 2 morning line issued by Horse Racing Nation’s Ed DeRosa. At 17-1, I had no interest in any putting money on Tuscan Gold. This year’s Preakness Stakes will be run at Pimlico Race Course on May 18. The 1 3/16-mile middle jewel of the Triple Crown has a purse of $2 million. In addition to Muth, Baffert plans to run Santa Anita Derby runner-up Imagination in the Preakness. Imagination closed at 17-1 in Pool 2 of the Preakness future wager. Winner of Santa Anita’s San Felipe Stakes in early March, Imagination finished second in the April 6 Santa Anita Derby to Stronghold, who then ran seventh in the Kentucky Derby. Below are the final odds for Pool 2 of the Preakness future wager as reported by 1/ST BET: Odds Horse 7-2 Muth 9-2 Fierceness 8-1 Sierra Leone 12-1 All Other 3-Year-Olds 12-1 Forever Young 14-1 Catching Freedom 17-1 Imagination 17-1 Tuscan Gold 26-1 Just a Touch 26-1 Seize the Grey 31-1 Dornoch 36-1 Honor Marie 37-1 Domestic Product 38-1 Just Steel 45-1 Mystik Dan 52-1 Copper Tax 53-1 Stronghold 54-1 Resilience 60-1 Endlessly 63-1 Track Phantom 68-1 Catalytic 85-1 Epic Ride 90-1 Informed Patriot 92-1 Imperial Gun 103-1 West Saratoga 120-1 Society Man 120-1 T O Password 121-1 Grand Mo the First 133-1 Uncle Heavy 213-1 Le Dom Bro SCR Encino SCR Patriot Spirit TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes) 1. 282 Senor Buscador (15) 2. 249 Idiomatic (9) 3. 200 National Treasure (4) 4. 156 First Mission (1) 5. 148 Master of The Seas (1) 6. 103 White Abarrio 7. 86 Adare Manor 8. 58 Skippylongstocking 9. 50 Saudi Crown 10. 48 Skelly Though they did not make the Top 10, The Chosen Vron and Laurel River each received one first-place vote. TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL In the wake of his Kentucky Derby victory, Mystik Dan vaults to No. 1 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll after he ranked No. 15 last week. Also, Kentucky Oaks winner Thorpedo Anna debuts on the Top 10 this week after she ranked No. 25 last week. Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll: Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes) 1. 305 Mystik Dan (22) 2. 288 Sierra Leone (5) 3. 218 Muth (3) 4. 208 Forever Young (1) 5. 178 Catching Freedom 6. 99 Thorpedo Anna 7. 82 Nysos 8. 67 Fierceness 9. 66 Resilience 10. 48 Stronghold

The Lead: Gulfstream Park co-features turf sprints Saturday that will provide automatic berths to international showcase races at Royal Ascot this summer. The second runnings of the Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies Turf (Race 8) and Royal Palm Juvenile (Race 10) are hoping to replicate last year's success. Crimson Advocate parlayed Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies Turf success into a victory in Royal Ascot's prestigious Group 2 Queen Mary in 2023. Both fields promise to be challenging betting chances with fields of 12 entered, predominantly occupied by first-time starters. My confidence leans to the latter and so I'll tackle the Juvenile in this space. ​Field Depth: Nine first-time starters are in the lineup with only RAISE THE BAR in possession of a victory to date. ​ Pace: Impossible to predict from a race shape with so many first-time starters. Our Eyes: Here are my horse-by-horse notes. #1-MAKEIT TO CHEYENNE: From the female family of elite sprinter Munnings, this son of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Liam’s Map (18% GP turf wins last 4 years, + ROI) debuts for trainer Mark Casse. Series of workouts at Palm Meadows includes one on turf and a bullet on dirt May 4. #2-ENTERDADRAGON: $17,000 purchase by Outwork debuts off a series of 7 workouts at Palm Meadows, the most recent of which came on turf. Outwork sired last year’s brilliant early season 2-year-old filly Brightwork, winner of the Debutante, Adirondack and Spinaway Stakes. Jose D’Angelo trains the direct descendent of the legendary mare Personal Ensign, his fourth dam. #3-MADROC: Constitution colt chased and tired to be fifth in his Keeneland turf debut April 25, finishing behind Royal Palm Juvenile rival Bright Skittle. Ocala-based colt returns to Florida for trainer Mary Lightner. Dam Holly Hundy was a Colonial Downs turf sprint stakes winner. #4-CLASSY WAR: Trainer Mark Casse notably campaigned this colt’s sire War of Will to 2019 Preakness glory and eventually Grade 1-winning turf credentials. Boasts bullet drills on turf not once, but twice, at Palm Meadows for the debut, notable this time of year when working amongst older horses. #5-REACH FOR THE ROSE: Home-bred debuts for owner Ken Ramsey and trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. By Holy Bull-Florida Derby winner Audible and whose second dam was a juvenile turf stakes winner for the Ramseys. Audible's offspring have been strong on the GP turf (20% win, 44% exacta, + ROI). Solid turf work coming into this capped a string of 6 clocked morning moves. #6-I KNOW I KNOW: Long, strong series of 8 workouts for the debut, including a bullet on turf at Palm Meadows on Sunday. Trainer Patrick Biancone tabs Keith Asmussen to ride, fresh off the Oaklawn meeting that closed last weekend. Sire Jess’s Dream, the impeccable son of Curlin-Rachel Alexandra, won his 1 and only start before going to stud. His best success at stud has been with turfer My Dani Girl. #7-GABALDON: $9,000 purchase by Gone Astray debuts after 7 Palm Meadows published workouts for Jose D’Angelo. Solid turf move April 26 among those. D’Angelo teams with Emisael Jaramillo, winning at a 20% rate in tandem over the past year-plus. #8-RAISE THE BAR: Cruised to victory in his lone start, a Keeneland dirt dash that clocked second-fastest of 9 two-year-old races at the 2024 Spring Meet. Trainer Wesley Ward finished seventh in this race last year with 4-5 favorite and debut runner Holding the Line. Ward has trained 2 other offspring of this mare, both of which found the winner’s circle in their first or second start. #9-BRIGHT SKITTLE: Late-running debut third on turf at Keeneland on April 25, finishing 1 length in front of Royal Palm Juvenile rival Madroc after a troubled break. $142,000 pricetag on this son of solid GP turf sire Twirling Candy and the debut-winning mare Harbor Lights (her first foal to race). Trainer Rusty Arnold has had many top turf sprinters in his care, including Leinster and Gear Jockey. #10-GOVERNOR SAM: Trainer George Weaver swept last year’s Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies and Juvenile in the inaugural year for the event, winning this race with debut runner No Nay Mets. This rookie sold for $275,000 at Ocala in April and is from the first crop of $2.7 million earner Improbable. Grandsire City Zip long known for turf sprint success at stud. Bullet workout on dirt at Palm Beach Downs April 25 among 2 published drills. Dam I’m Betty G was a multiple stakes winner on turf. #11-INCANTO: Stonestreet Stable looks to continue its annual treks to Royal Ascot with this Irish-bred rookie who is working bullets. Jack Sisterson trains, while much of the Stonestreet-to-Ascot history came with Wesley Ward. Sire Mehmas best known to US players for exported offspring Going Global and Chez Pierre. He's also sired Mamba Wamba, who has had some local success in GP turf sprints. #12-GARDEN OF WAR: Like Classy War in this same field, trainer Mark Casse notably campaigned this colt’s sire War of Will to 2019 Preakness glory and eventually Grade 1-winning turf credentials. Back-to-back bullet workouts at Palm Meadows on dirt and turf coming into the career debut. Casse turns here to jockey Miguel Vasquez, a 21% winning combination over the past year-plus. Most Certain Exotics Contender: GARDEN OF WAR is training like a good thing and should avoid any issues from the outside post, albeit accepting some ground loss. Best Longshot Exotics Contender: Given George Weaver's success here last year and Wesley Ward's history of being bet in these type of races, the value will be to avoid those runners. ​ Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $70 win REACH FOR THE ROSE. $5 exacta key-box REACH FOR THE ROSE with GARDEN OF WAR, CLASSY WAR and BRIGHT SKITTLE ($30).